A new survey by The Brenthurst Foundation has revealed that the ANC's support has fallen to 39%, making a coalition government highly likely after the general election on 29 May. The biggest gainers were the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Jacob Zuma's MK party, which rose to 27% from 23% in October. With 33% of the vote, the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) coalition is just 6% behind the ANC.
Voters are unhappy with governance, with some 80% saying the country is "going in the wrong direction" and the opposition-governed Western Cape and City of Cape Town ranked as the best-governed areas of South Africa by some margin. Voters also appear to have been alienated by the ANC's foreign policy agenda, which has alienated traditional allies in the West as the party indulges Russia, China, and Iran. Some 43% of voters believe that South Africa should align itself with the West and other democratic nations, with 22% saying it should align itself with Africa and only 19% saying it should align itself with BRICS.
More than 50% of voters said the ANC's policy on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts would not affect the way they voted. However, 24% of voters said they were "less likely" to vote for the ANC due to its policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while 23% of voters said they were "less likely" to vote for the ANC over its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In Gauteng, the DA has risen to 32%, while the ANC has fallen to 34%. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's MK party is set to be the largest party, with 25% of the vote. The aggregated vote for the MPC is 39%, and a coalition government will run this province.
In the Western Cape, the DA retains a majority with 53%, while the ANC has risen sharply to 35% from 22% in October. Voters cited unemployment (28%), corruption (27%), load shedding (17%), and weak leadership as the biggest issues facing the country. More than half of voters blame the ANC government of the last three decades for South Africa's problems, with 11% saying apartheid was to blame.
With a coalition future more likely than ever, 76% of voters said they would be happy for a coalition to govern South Africa, up from 74% in October. The Brenthurst findings show that South Africans prefer a coalition government located towards the center of politics rather than the left.
