South Africa's food security is threatened by a bird flu outbreak, which has led to the culling of over 7 million chickens. South Africa consumes approximately 2.3 billion kg of chicken annually, making it the most consumed animal protein in the country. The outbreak has affected 20% of table egg production and between 25% and 30% of broiler chicken production, with 30% of the local output lost. The country will be short 600 million kg of chicken over the next 12 months, a severe problem in a food-insecure country.
Retailers have rationed purchases, raised prices, or run out of stock due to the egg shortage, impacting consumers. However, the chicken shortage has not yet affected consumers as the production differs from table eggs. The next cycle of growing chickens is expected to start impacting around mid-November, with supply disruptions lasting at least 12 to 18 months. From December and likely for the next 12 months, South Africa will be approximately 50 million kg of chicken short per month unless severe interventions are implemented.
Professor Robert Bragg from the University of the Free State Department of Microbiology and Biochemistry echoed Southey's concerns, stating that the bird flu outbreak will have a long-term effect on South Africa's poultry industry. He said it would take between 18 and 25 weeks for the industry to replace the breeder birds that were culled due to the outbreak. After the replacement, the birds must lay eggs, which usually take around 23 weeks, go into peak production at 35 weeks, and hatch, which takes approximately 21 days. The hatchlings will be put into poultry houses, and on average, the broiler birds must stay there for about 35 days.
The impact of this situation is particularly concerning for small to medium-sized poultry farmers, who are 100% reliant on getting birds from breeders.
