South Africa's blackout data has shown a significant positive shift, with the recent suspension of load shedding suspensions pushing trendlines in a better direction. Independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan's latest Power Blackout Statistics for South Africa shows that blackout hour trends have plateaued over the past few weeks as Eskom halted outages for extended periods. In September, South Africa was on track to experience double the total blackout hours in 2022 by mid-October. However, in the last week of the month, blackout hours are still below this position.
This marks the first time projections have taken a decidedly positive turn in 2023. South Africans have experienced a cumulative 64.2 days of blackouts (time without any power) for 2023, adding 0.3 days at the end of last week. However, a sustained narrowing of the power supply gap in the previous five weeks clipped the full-year projection by seven days.
The positive turn is also reflected in the trend data. The load-shedding suspensions are having a clear impact, with blackout times reaching the lowest levels this year. The annual trendline has also decreased after almost a year of constant climbing.
Minister in the Presidency for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that South Africa is beginning to turn a corner on resolving the electricity crisis. The intensification of maintenance plans at Eskom is starting to have a positive impact despite a difficult period in September when load shedding was intensified due to maintenance outages. These maintenance outages are aimed at reducing the incidence of generating units tripping on their own and improving performance.
While the boost for the power situation is attributed to efforts at Eskom, data shows that pressure on the grid is also being eased by much lower demand from customers, partly thanks to a boom in rooftop solar generation, which has almost doubled in 2023.
