A recent nationally representative poll conducted by Sabi Strategy and The Brenthurst Foundation shows that the prospects of a coalition government following next year's election are more likely than ever. The Multi-Party Charter (MPC), which comprises the DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, and the UIM, would reach 36% based on the latest numbers. The gap between the ANC and the MPC has narrowed from 14% a year ago to 5%.
The EFF is another big gainer, improving its support from 11% to 17% over the same period. The temptation for the ANC and EFF to bury the hatchet and form a coalition may have increased following these poll numbers. Such a coalition would probably result in the inclusion of EFF leaders in top government positions and the adoption of some of its populist policies, risking economic disaster on top of 17 years of low growth and infrastructural and social decay.
A coalition between the IFP and the ANC would inch that coalition closer to 50% and above in the event of a low turnout. However, this scenario presumes that the IFP’s voter base would be willing to make such compromises, which is less likely now that it is committed to the MPC.
In South Africa, fierce political competition is dawning, with the largest provinces — Gauteng, KZN, and Gauteng — comprising 56% of South Africa’s population and 63% of its economic output. These three provinces — Western Cape, KZN, and Gauteng — comprise 56% of South Africa’s population and 63% of its financial work.
There is a path to victory for the MPC, but it will require frank internal conversations and honest assessments of where to focus efforts and resources. These decisions would have to be taken soon and then stuck to by all its members according to a consistent narrative relating to voter concerns.
According to the survey, 83% of South Africans rank unemployment, corruption, load shedding, and crime as the country's most critical issues. Most respondents (57%) hold the ANC government of the past three decades responsible for South Africa’s problems, up from 51% a year ago, and only 5% viewed apartheid as accountable for their plight, down from 9%.
To avoid that happening with the MPC, the parties would have to go into any pact with their eyes wide open and operate on consensus and compromise. This would only be achievable based on shared objectives through individual party identities.
There is some hope for the MPC in this regard, as most respondents (74%) said they would be happy to see a coalition of parties govern SA. The DA now has overall more excellent political favourability (37% from 36% a year ago) than the ANC (30% from 39% a year ago), and the ANC’s unfavourability among respondents has risen from 38% to 44%. In comparison, the DA’s declined from 41% to 36%.
After the dismal failures of recent years, South Africans seem increasingly desperate for change, and the onus is now on political parties to convince the public that they can deliver it.
This article is republished from the Daily Maverick. Click here to read the original article.
